Supply Gap for Alumina Persists, Spot Price Likely to Continue Fluctuating Trend [[SMM Alumina Morning Comment]]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment on April 28

Futures Market: On April 25th, the most-traded alumina 2509 futures contract opened at 2,830 yuan/mt during the night session, reaching a high of 2,858 yuan/mt and a low of 2,828 yuan/mt, before closing at 2,849 yuan/mt, up 3 yuan/mt or 0.11%, with open interest at 218,000 lots.

Ore Market: As of April 25, the SMM Import Bauxite Index stood at $80.41/mt, down $2.7/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea Bauxite CIF average price was $80/mt, down $3/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Australia Low-Temperature Bauxite CIF average price was $87/mt, down $7/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Australia High-Temperature Bauxite CIF average price was $72/mt, down $8/mt from the previous trading day.

Basis Report: According to SMM data, on April 25, the SMM Alumina Index had a premium of 59 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30.

Warrant Report: On April 25, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 5,706 mt from the previous trading day to 274,700 mt. In Shandong, the total registered alumina warrants remained unchanged at 3,307 mt from the previous trading day. In Henan, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 602 mt to 5,702 mt from the previous trading day. In Guangxi, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 5,104 mt to 36,600 mt from the previous trading day. In Gansu, the total registered alumina warrants remained unchanged at 14,400 mt from the previous trading day. In Xinjiang, the total registered alumina warrants remained unchanged at 214,700 mt from the previous trading day.

Overseas Market: As of April 25, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $348/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $20.50/mt. The USD/CNY exchange rate selling price was around 7.30. This price translates to approximately 3,122 yuan/mt for the external selling price at major domestic ports, which is 228.83 yuan/mt higher than the domestic alumina price. The alumina import window remained closed.

Summary:

Last week, some alumina refineries completed maintenance and resumed production. Meanwhile, news of new maintenance and production cuts emerged, with both increases and decreases in alumina operating capacity. Overall, the weekly operating capacity rebounded slightly. As of last Thursday, according to SMM statistics, the national alumina operating capacity was 83.62 million mt/year, up 740,000 mt/year WoW. Due to the concentration of maintenance and production cuts, the alumina operating capacity has been below the theoretical demand for aluminum production for several consecutive weeks, tightening the supply of spot alumina. As a result, spot alumina prices stopped falling, with a slight rebound in north China. Moving forward, it is necessary to continuously track the progress of alumina maintenance capacity resuming production, the commissioning progress of new capacity, and news of additional maintenance and production cuts. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate mainly.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not rely on this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]